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20 February Forex daily review

Sergiy Zlyvko
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EURUSD remains the third day in a row in a gloomy mood, gradually deepening drawdown on weak European-wide statistics. Statistics on business activity in the service sector of the Eurozone published on the eve fell shortly near the forecast and stopped at the level of 51.7 points against expectations of 51.9 points together with a report on PMI in manufacturing sector (53 points while waiting at 54.2 points) did not promote an interest in buying.

Especially French components of PMI were upset, the part of reports on business activity in Germany also alarmed. The latest understanding: Germany publishes different releases, offsetting weak strong and vice versa. But the situation with business France is alarming.

Getting all the necessary statistics on this five-day, tracing the neutral report on inflation in the U.S. in January (0.1% as expected) and weekly applications for unemployment benefits (almost flush with the projections), EURUSD on Friday is likely will hold a quiet and peaceful day. Important report is only one today in the evening – the sales data in the U.S. housing market.

Next week is also unlikely to give the Forex market some obvious momentum: the last five days of the month is usually held in the range for key currency pairs, unless the external environment does not encourage in any direction. So while EURUSD will remain within the corridor 1.3750 level, slightly lower than yesterday – leave to the bears the room for maneuver.

Minutes of the last meeting of the Bank of Japan informed the market about nothing new, as it was expected. USDJPY after testing 102.60 level drops again. While current resistance is limiting growth efforts, reduce risks to 101.60 reserved.

Yesterday GBPUSD continued to consolidate in a narrow range, limited the support at 1.6635, below which 50-day moving average is situated and the level of 1.6700. Thus, the pair was bought and sold on the rise, reflecting the uncertainty of market participants on the future fate of the pound, which will depend on the incoming macroeconomic data from the United Kingdom. While current support attracts buying interest, pair’s chances for the resumption of growth persist. Loss of support will pave the way to 1.6500 mark, where the 100-day moving average is situated.

Dollar paired with the Swiss franc is still unable to hold above support at 0.8860. The pair has been bought at this price level, allowing United States dollar to climb and test the resistance at 0.8915, where interest in sales is maintained. Nevertheless, in the fall to 0.8890 the purchases of the pair have been continued, although signs of reversal at the current stage. Therefore reducing the risks and test support at 0.8800 remains and only above 0.9035 the outlook can improve.

The dynamics of the Canadian dollar may be affected by the main consumer price index in Canada. Predictive value is 0.1% vs. -0.4%.The higher value than the forecast will support Canadian dollar, negative or zero – will pressure.

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