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26 February Forex daily review

Sergiy Zlyvko
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On Wednesday, on the U.S. session the U.S. dollar managed to reverse the situation, get out of the narrow range and highs in the last four trading days. Dollar growth accelerated after strong data on housing sales in the primary market in the U.S. The number of new home sales in the U.S. in January totaled 468 thousand vs. the forecast of 406 thousand and 427 thousand of the previous value (revised from 414 thousand). These data supported the dollar throughout the market.

There are not many important macroeconomic events scheduled for today. At 8.55 GMT in Germany, the data on the labor market in February (the unemployment rate and changes in the number of unemployed) publishes. At 10.00 GMT the index of consumer confidence in the Eurozone publishes. At 13.00 GMT Germany publishes the data on consumer price inflation. At the same time ECB board member Jens Weidmann has a speech. At 13.30 GMT Bundesbank board member Andreas Dombret performs. At 18.30 GMT the head of the ECB Mario Draghi would perform at the symposium of the Bundesbank. Many speakers and one careless statement may increase volatility in the market.

At 13.30 GMT in the United States a report on orders for durable goods in January releases. At the same time, we will receive the information about number of initial applications for unemployment benefits last week. At 15.00 GMT business climate index for February will be published. Simultaneously with the publication of this indicator Federal Reserve Janet Yellen will present his speech. Calendar is full of the news but what will be during the day it is hard to say. I will continue on the main scenarios to consider the growth of the dollar against all major currencies. There are a lot of news, so the probability of performance predictions for Thursday is low. We could take this information into account in the forecast.

The single currency in the U.S. session fell to 1.3660. France first began to complain for the strong euro, then strong data on the U.S. housing market was published. At the moment, EURUSD is in a correctional phase and the pair is currently trading at 1.3685. I believe that sellers need to be more active, because the pair will block the growth falling to 61%. After this rollback bulls again will move to the offensive.

Today a lot of news publishes. We admit for EURUSD to rise to 1.3700 level, but not above. The main scenario for EURUSD to decline to 1.3620 mark.

Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar during the U.S. session noted new lows. Updated yesterday morning, the minimum and of the trading was noted at 0.8940. Investors’ concerns about the Chinese economy do not cease. After a brief pullback, we start again consider lowering AUDUSD. The target level of 0.8905 is chosen.

USDCHF rate strayed from 0.8855 and closed the European session reached 0.8930. After rolling back to 0.8890 we are waiting form the dollar to grow to 0.8955. The pair broke the last maximum of 0.8915. The conditions are favorable for continued growth.

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