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Next week’s Forex forecast

Sergiy Zlyvko
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Economic calendar for the coming week cannot be called saturated. It is therefore possible that the quotes of basic pairs will move under the influence of previously formed attitudes. Moreover, against the background of a lack of macroeconomic statistics is not excluded that politics has a fore again. Although in the second half of five working days the U.S. will publish some interesting reports.

But the Japanese currency at the beginning of the week has its own reasons for unrest. On Sunday, at 23.50 GMT, the data on the rate of economic growth in the rising sun country will be published. The slowdown may have additional pressure on the yen, because this is will be a signal to the Bank of Japan to continue ultra-soft monetary policy conducting. We will learn on Tuesday about the decisions made by the regulator on March 11. In the future, reports from the United States will enter the scene. Retail sales data on Thursday is important as well as a report on consumer confidence from the University of Michigan on Friday. Any evidence of stabilization from the U.S. economy could provoke further growth of pair, aiming it at the level of 104.00 and, further, to the highs of late last year at 105.40.

European currency at the beginning of the week has not its own catalysts, so it is possible that the pair will begin its correction to the district-level of 1.3825. On Wednesday, data on industrial production can make minor adjustment to the dynamics of the pair. Provided that the report will continue the series of positive data, validating ECB’s decision to not rush the introduction of new stimulus measures, the euro may resume the growth. Data on consumer price inflation in Germany should not be excluded from the field on Friday. However, we should not take it, perhaps, as a catalyst for the movement, but as one more touch to the overall economic picture of the monetary unit. The above mentioned reports from the United States are likely to cause much more interest.

Britain on Tuesday will publish the data on industrial production. We cannot say that the report is traditionally causes strong reaction. But given the current mood in respect of the British economy, good numbers will push the pound up to the level of 1.6785. Although more significant, on March 11 will be a report on the performance of inflation from the Bank of England chairman Mark Carney. Expectations of price pressures growth acceleration will be a reason for hope for a more aggressive attitude control and, therefore, would also benefit British currency. Later, in the absence of its own macro data, pound will be under the influence of external factors.

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