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German Jobs Data, Eurozone CPI and US Consumer Confidence to Watch

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The dollar was mixed against its G10 counterparts during the European morning Tuesday. EURUSD managed to recover slightly and to stabilize around 1.2700 during the European session, ahead of Thursday’s ECB monetary policy decision for October. NZD experienced the biggest losses among the G10 currencies.

Stock prices were generally lower and S&P 500 index futures were down slightly, while the ICE U.S. Dollar Index, a measure of the dollar’s value against six rival currencies, was down -0.036% at 85.5910.

The European trading day starts with Retail Sales and Employment data from Germany. Retail Sales are expected to have fallen by -0.2% yoy in August vs +0.7% mom in July. For the employment data, the market is expecting another good reading for German unemployment: a drop of 2k is expected, which would leave the unemployment rate at 6.7%. The bigger risk is for a negative surprise, as any further signs of weakness in the currency bloc’s biggest economy, could deal another blow to the single currency.

From UK, we get the final reading of GDP for Q2, and the market expects no change, with the quarterly rate of growth staying at 0.8%. The Eurozone unemployment rate for August is estimated to have remained unchanged at 11.5%. The unemployment rate has been in a tight range (11.5% – 12.00% since October 2013) so we doubt that it will have much of a market impact.

Later in the day, Eurozone CPI is forecast to have decelerate to 0.3% yoy the lowest level since mid-2009, from 0.4% yoy. The rate remains firmly below the ECB’s target of near but just below 2%.

In US, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence index for September is expected to have risen slightly to 92.5 from 92.4, reflecting the latest positive US economic data. The S&P/Case-Shiller index includes higher-priced houses, which have been recovering faster than lower-priced houses. In the US, the Case/Shiller House Price index for July is forecast to have slowed in July by 7.5% versus 8.1%.

Overnight, the Bank of Japan releases its Tankan Business Confidence survey for Q3. All the major indices are expected to decline.

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