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17 February Forex daily review

Sergiy Zlyvko
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EURUSD rate slowed somewhat strengthening by Tuesday, but from the bulls attacks are not refused – the pair is standing near three-week high and will look for any excuse to continue the ascent.

There aren’t drivers for growth now. Macroeconomic calendar was empty before and empty today, so investors only remains to analyze said information by that global central banks earlier and draw conclusions from this flow of information. The European Central Bank remains committed to stimulating, pause and planned to minimize QE3 program from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Further information can be found in the Fed minutes, which are being published this week, will only continue to wait for the March meeting.

It is possible that on the background of a news vacuum and a thin market EURUSD will take into account the flow of information from the UK, which began to publish important statistics – today there are reports on the January inflation. Asia gives promising signals: the inflow of foreign investment in China in January calms nervous before traders worry about the economic slowdown in China this year. In general, there isn’t much concrete information, there is much information noise, EURUSD follows the bulls, although it’s time to cool the market.

USDCHF, as well as the EURUSD, stood on the spot. From 0.8900 mark the traders continue to buy the pair, while it is not able to increase above 0.8925 level. Thus, the situation remains unchanged in the pair. The loss of the 0.8900 level will open the way to the support level near 0.8800. To improve prospects, the dollar must go back above 0.8900 and overcome the resistance at around 0.9040.

Yesterday the GBPUSD was marked at new highs at 1.6820, which was used for short-term profit-taking by traders that triggered the depreciation of the pair to 1.6695. Roll of EURGBP contributed to this. Buy GBPUSD pair and reaching a new high is a valid excuse to take profits, but still talk about forming the top and trend reversal is not necessary. Pound may continue to decline, the next target is seen at 1.6665 support level, its loss may be a sign of the peak. Rising above 1.6800 seems unlikely.

USDJPY followed the stock indices, rising to the level of resistance at around 102.70, where the 100-day moving average is situated. This level could provide decent resistance and the dollar resumed its decline, ending the week at 101.60 support. It is possible that the pair falling amid rising stock market indices can be seen as a sign of changing mood of traders about the Japanese yen, but until the current support is not broken and the dollar has been secured below it to exclude continuation of the uptrend is not necessary. Break of 102.70 will be the proof.

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