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27 February Forex daily review

Sergiy Zlyvko
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On Thursday, major pairs moved by a forecasted scenario in the first half of the day. For the second session momentum forces were not enough, although performance of Janet Yellen was in favor of the dollar. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen said that since the last meeting of the Open Market Committee Federal Reserve fundamentals of the country deteriorated somewhat, but the Fed will continue to reduce the amount of quantitative easing (QE). Rebounds for majors were deep, which means that pairs are trading in their ranges. The economic calendar on Friday is again scored by important macroeconomic data.

At 7.00 GMT Germany is going to publish a report on retail sales for January. It is expected that in the month of January indicator increased by 1.2% m/m and decreased by year -1.7 y/y compared with a decline in December by 2.5% and 2.4% for the year. Consequently, if the values are not lower than forecast, the euro will go down. If it coincides with predicted data or come out better so most likely the pair will be traded sideways until 10.00 GMT. At this time, the Eurozone is going to publish preliminary data on consumer price index for the Eurozone in February, as well as the value of the unemployment rate in the region in January.

Now let’s look at 13.30 GMT three important events goes simultaneously: updated data on GDP for the 4th quarter of Canada and the U.S., Bank of England head Mark Carney also will perform. At 14.55 GMT in the final index of consumer confidence in the University of Michigan in February will be published, which, according to preliminary data, was 81.4 points. At 15.00 GMT the report of pending home sales is going to be published. After 15.00 GMT will the representative of the four U.S. Federal Reserve (Narayan Kocherlakota, Jeremy Stein, Charles Evans, Charles Plosser) has a speech.

The pound is now in the hands of Mark Carney. By pricing model, the pound is set for further growth. If we do not want to go out of range, then we would venture to re-examine the growth of the dollar. On the euro, we should look like the currency will held 1.3680 mark. For further fall to a new low, it is very important to close yesterday’s long bullish candle. We are in the main scenario for the EURUSD drop consider using double highest point line resistance.

Once we have got used to the fact that the AUDUSD in morning flies by 50 points. Today also the pair updated the maximum and fell to 0.8940. Since we’re on all major pairs consider rising dollar, our goal is fall of AUDUSD to 0.8915.

Our expectations for growth did not materialize. Price returned to the previous range. Expanding triangle is traced, which just indicates the uncertainty in the market. If we do not want to go out of the channel, then we will again consider the growth to 0.8930 level. Economic calendar today is tight, so the situation is 50 to 50. We chose growth on hourly indicators.

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