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4 March Forex daily review

Sergiy Zlyvko
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The dollar index showed the formation which expected but swerved in time. Prior to the calculated goals, euro and pound fell shortly, but overall we still consider the further growth of the dollar. World markets have calmed down after completed invasion of Russian troops and president Vladimir Putin held a press conference for journalists. If the bad news from Ukraine will not come today, participants will focus on macroeconomic events.

From 8.15 to 9.30 GMT the indexes of business activity in the services sector in February for the EU fell today. At 9.30 GMT the same index will be published in the UK. At 13.15 GMT ADP index for February will be published. Analysts on average expected the value of the index at the level of 153 thousand compared to 175 thousand in December. At 15.00 GMT ISM non-manufacturing sector index will be released, which, according to analysts, in February fell to 53.5 against the previous value of 54 points.

As you can see, a lot of news coming out and all of them are significant. With mixed data the dynamics of major pairs will be volatile. Given the dynamics of pairs in the U.S. session, the dollar in Europe forwards insignificant drop in the U.S. session and its growth. There is something similar to yesterday, only the amplitude of the movement in the U.S. session must be greater than Tuesday.

EURUSD fell back to 1.3780 mark and when AC and Stochastic climbed into the area of sales, EURUSD fell to 1.3725. It did not hold to the target, but in general can upgrade at least today. There are a lot of news scheduled for today. We should distinguish service PMI index for the EU, further data for the Eurozone and the United States among them. If the euro goes down immediately, the goal then there will be at around 1.3635. We did the first half of the day to see growth to 1.3750 and fall to 1.3660. If the pair rebounded sharply upward, there are risks to return to 1.3820 level. Break of 1.3755 will cancel decline script.

The British pound after rising to 1.6715 fell to 1.6650. For today we forecast the scenario in form of yesterday’s forecast. The British pound has been declining from 1.6715 after weak PMI index in the UK manufacturing sector release. Today the service index PMI will be released. On it the decline is expected, which means that the pound could fall before the news. There we should not wonder, there are a lot of options. We see rising before the news release because the indicators need to rise higher. Break of 1.6695 will cancel the script.

Most of the time AUDUSD traded at 0.8930 level. In the morning there was a shot to 0.8995. This is a reaction to the strong Australian GDP, which in the 4th quarter showed the growth above forecast. In the next hour sellers blocked growth rate returned to 0.8950. Now we see a pullback to 0.8965 and the market if the dollar continues to strengthen yesterday, you would expect AUDUSD to decline to 0.8910 mark.

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