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11 March Forex daily review

Sergiy Zlyvko
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Overall, yesterday’s market action coincided with our expectations. Only the Australian dollar fell below the target goal. The sharp decline of the Australian dollar experts associated with copper price fall, although a sharp decline of copper prices began on March 7. Important data from the U.S. yesterday has not been published. It turns out that market participants reacted late and we think the fall was due not only to copper prices, but on a slowdown of Chinese economy (poor statistics published at the weekend).

EURUSD and GBPUSD updated their lows and closing to the European session end repulsed all losses. Between the indicator and stock price we have a divergence. It is supposed to be upward correction of the three waves. This can form a plane and if we consider the ascending triangle, it will be five waves. What do we want to tell? If GBPUSD minimum will be updated today and fall will be steep, let’s keep the target in the area of 1.6530. We looked through all the crosses on the pound and stayed on the purpose of correction at 1.6660. If GBPUSD at the current level will stay for more than two days, we should be ready to return the rate to 1.6785. The probability is low, but it should not be ignored.

A similar pattern is observed for the euro. Projected to fall to 1.3795 examined firstly, then the script revises and we think that leave down through the rollback to 1.3875. Hourly indicators are in the neutral zone, so those who work with the euro, watch out for EURGBP cross rate. If it slips down to 1.3790, euro will gather all protective stops. Eurozone industrial production report for January will be distinguished among today’s economic reports. An increase in industrial production in January is expected by 0.5% after falling 0.7% the month before. It can support the bulls. If the decline of the euro for some reason will accelerate and successfully passed the level of 1.3835, the first target here we will consider is 1.3730 level.

The Australian dollar fell back to 0.9040 mark and from it fell by 80 points. This fall we did not expect. The sharp decline of the Australian dollar experts associated with copper price fall, although a sharp decline in copper prices began on March 7. Important data from the U.S. has not been published yesterday. Falling stopped at 0.8945 level. We think this fall is not finished and waiting again to roll back to 0.8990 and new fall. Break of trend line will cancel the forecast.

Dollar against the Swiss franc rose to 0.8805 mark. The pair failed to rise above, the dollar without news flow started been selling. Pair is trading at 0.8785 near the support. The situation is uncertain and the idea should be considered on depreciation trend, but we seem that the rebound will be in the evening and the price will go on top.

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