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15 April Forex daily review

Sergiy Zlyvko
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On Tuesday, the dollar index closed up to the previous day virtually unchanged. U.S. Fed Chairman Janet Yellen said on yesterday’s speech about tightening of capital requirements for the largest U.S. banks and nothing was said about the timing of rate hikes in 2015. This gave confidence to the dollar sellers. By the way, today at 16.15 GMT another appearance of Yellen is scheduled.

When we did morning forecasts, it was difficult to choose the direction of the dollar relative to other currencies. There is a controversy between major pairs and crosses. You can assume that today’s forecast scenarios are a compromise between buyers and sellers.

Euro and British did not have a few points to get to calculated levels. If there wasn’t a sharp rebound of the pound, today we would consider the continued rise of the dollar. So, we get on Wednesday that a report on the British labor market will be published today. It is a meaningful report for the pound. Weak report sends pound down by 50-60 points, respectively strong – upward. The amplitude of motion will be dependent on how the actual value will vary from the predicted value. Further attention of traders will switch to data on construction in the United States. We chose in the first half of the day the dollar’s decline, in the second – its growth.

On Tuesday, EURUSD strayed from the minimum of 1.3790 mark and back to 1.3830. No news background – no movement. For 15 hours EURUSD traded in a narrow range with an average price of 1.3815. We would like to consider the euro falling to a new low, but contradictory picture made choose to increase to 1.3850 and return to 1.3820 mark. From today’s close will depend on where the euro will go tomorrow. The lower the closing – the higher likelihood of a further fall of the euro against the dollar. Closure of the EURUSD above 1.3820 mark will indicate continued growth on Thursday.

After rebound from 1.6660 pound left a long shadow. That’s it haunted us today, as in the case of such a model we should consider the growth of the pound. Again, if the price quickly returns to 1.6660 on a report on the labor market, then again a reversal pattern (double bottom) will be. We considered today to rise to 1.6755 and fall to 1.6700. The best for today is the absence of work on the pound.

AUDUSD exchange rate reached a settlement goal in the U.S. session. Australian dollar dropped after gold, which is not often seen. After the release of mixed data on China, AUDUSD exchange rate looks up from 0.9330. We consider the forecast rollback to 0.9380 and then to be ready for next fall. Before you sell AUD, you need to look at the dynamics of cross-rates, if there is no signal on cross sales to AUD, by the main pair it would be better to refrain from selling.

USDCHF did not touched calculated level. Dollar surrendered at 0.8820. Currently the pair is trading at 0.8800. We would like to see the growth to 0.8835, but probably not today. We chose on Wednesday pair decrease to 0.8770 and then return to the level of 0.8800.

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