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17 April Forex daily review

Sergiy Zlyvko
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Expectations for yesterday are justified. The dollar index after reduction to the support line rebounded to around 79.90. In anticipation of the long weekend, the rebound became stronger than expected.

On Friday on the occasion of “Good Friday” the exchanges of most European countries will be closed. Today, banks are not running the UK, Germany, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Switzerland. In the U.S., the stock market works on a reduced schedule. On Monday, Europe will celebrate Easter. From Friday to Tuesday significant events will be. Let’s go back for a moment in 2012 and 2013.

In 2012, during the Easter holidays Egan-Jones Ratings Co. rating agency cut the U.S. credit rating to AA. Additional negative sentiment on the currency market came from North Korea, which is preparing to host the third underground nuclear test.

In 2013, the Easter holidays fell on 29 March 2013-1 April 2013. The past year was more memorable Cyprus crisis for me, about which nobody speaks today. Before March 29, 2013 in Cyprus all local banks opened. Then citizens holding funds in Cypriot banks have lost about 80%. Leader of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea Kim Jong-un ordered missile troops prepare to strike at U.S. military bases in South Korea and the Pacific, including Guam and Hawaii. Kim Jong-un at this time is surprising the world constantly. This year, North Korea launched a rocket again, just because of Ukraine the topic went unnoticed. From the U.S. Kim Jong Un switched to a showdown with relatives.

EURUSD traded in a range of 400 points at 1.2815, GBPUSD traded in a range of 350 points at the level of 1.5200. At Easter the price range was 95 points for the euro and the pound – 65 points.

This spring market participants’ attention is directed to the Ukrainian crisis yesterday after a meeting in Geneva with representatives of Russia, Ukraine, the USA and the EU adopted a joint document in which the parties agreed on the first concrete steps to de-escalate the situation in the east of Ukraine. We think the important news we expect ahead.

As European banks do not work today, the oscillations on major currency pair expect in a range of 40 points. On liquid markets excessive fluctuations are probable, but we stick to the main scenario flat market until Monday. In Easter trading range for the euro and the pound may expand to 90 points.

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