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21 April Forex daily review

Sergiy Zlyvko
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Due to the Easter holidays investor activity remained at a low level. Dollar achieved highest point against the euro and the franc, but speculators have not enough volume to achieve target levels.

Currently hour indicators are unfortunate to continue dollar’s strengthening, so we expect patterning on yesterday’s day – reducing to 79.90 mark and rising to 80.20. We make another attempt to consider the strengthening of the dollar throughout the market. Targets for euro and pound remain yesterday’s (1.3745 and 1.6710). Important news for currencies we do not see, unless Bernanke will surprise traders at 15.45 GMT.

After rolling back to the level of 1.3820, EURUSD fell to 1.3785. We expected the forecast to fall to 1.3745 mark. We did not comply by the time, so the goal remains relevant today. Thirteen hours pair traded in a narrow range. Because AO indicator is at the bottom, then most likely, we will again firstly rollback to 1.3810 and then go down. Euro does not feeling well in the crosses, so sales on Tuesday remain in the priority.

Notice we did not even changed forecast scenario for Friday and Monday. On Monday, the market was trading by Friday’s forecast. On Tuesday we leave the script yesterday, as British consolidated during the day and closed almost unchanged with respect to Friday’s close. Target leaves at the level of 1.6710. The faster pound will pass 1.6770, the faster the dollar will reach 1.6710 mark.

Expectations to reduce the Australian dollar did not materialize. In Asia, the AUDUSD exchange rate reached 0.9360. Yield data on inflation in Australia is scheduled for tomorrow, so today the pair can stay in line bargain 0.9330 level. Since we are in all currencies today consider losses against the U.S. dollar, respectively, in the main scenario we are waiting to return to 0.9315. AUDUSD drop below 0.9315 mark will depend on the general mood of the U.S. dollar. The Australian dollar rose departing from the two-week low ahead of tomorrow’s publication of inflation data. According to the median forecast of economists, consumer price index in the first quarter is likely to grow at an annualized rate of 2.9% against 2.6% growth in the previous period. Recall that the inflation target of the Reserve Bank of Australia is 2-3%.

Dollar updated highest point against the Swiss franc, but was below the predicted level. Start has taken from 0.8850 instead the level of 0.8830. On Tuesday we expect something similar to yesterday’s move. Since AO is in the positive area is reduced, then the in the first half of the day we consider pullback and rebound to 0.8880.

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