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The Seasonality of Apple

David Becker
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The Seasonality of Apple

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is scheduled to release its earnings results after the bell on Wednesday. Base on history, investors need not rush to purchase the stock, and should have plenty of time to buy Apple during the course of the summer. True a better than expected results could catapult the stock back into a higher, range, but the seasonality of Apple’s share price shows that the stock generally rally’s in July.

In evaluating an analysis of the share price performance over the past 20-years it is clear that Apple has some seasonality. Seasonality is the idea that a stock or ETF perform better in a particular month or season. During this past 20-year period, Apple has seen its best performance during July. The stock has increased 75% of the time, with an average gain of approximately 6.4%. This likely comes following its FQ3 earnings release in mid-July. With this in mind, investors need not rush to purchase the stock until the summer. During the summer months, Apple’s share price is mixed, higher by 50% during May, and June and the approximate returns are very close to zero.

Analysts are estimating that Apples FQ2 earnings per share rose to $10.18 from $10.10 and that revenue slipped 0.2% to $43.53 billion. Canaccord’s checks suggest that iPhone sales slowed in April due to competition and iPhone 6 anticipation. Still, many expect a dividend hike and hopes are high for the iPhone 6.

Unless Apple hits the ball out of the park, investors are better served waiting to purchase the stock on a further dip, ahead of the FQ3 earnings release.

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