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28 April Forex daily review

Sergiy Zlyvko
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In the U.S. session the dollar bulls have won most of their losses. From a minimum of 79.55 points, the dollar index back to 79.75 mark. Since pullback was more than 50%, European events can be sent to the archive. Now market participants’ attention is directed to the inflation report in Germany publication (12.00 GMT) and preliminary data on the volume change of UK GDP for the 1st quarter (8.30 GMT). In case of actual values severe deviation from the forward, both reports can have a strong impact on the euro and pound.

The dollar index back into the channel and it goes until forming a sideways trend. The main scenario considering is DXY index rebound to 79.90. The situation is ambiguous, but given yesterday’s dynamics of AUDUSD and NZDUSD pairs, today we remain on the side of the U.S. dollar.

EURUSD fell from a highest point of 1.3880 to 1.3840. Since the pair returned to the moving average, then we consider the decline to 1.3850 today. In Asia, the euro strengthened against the background of cross-rates, but German inflation data will put final point, which will be released at 12.00 GMT. While EURUSD is trading above 1.3840, there are risks to go 1.3900, so we should wait before sell the pair. We do not wait for the growth due to the meeting of FOMC.

On Friday, the British pound returned to the moving average and it is currently trading in a narrow range. Pound made two scenarios, as a report on Britain’s GDP is a key event for the British pound and it has a strong impact on all pairs with the pound. Since pullback from yesterday’s growth was more than 50%, as the main scenario we consider the first significant drop to the support level at 1.6760.

The Australian dollar closed lower against the U.S. dollar. Once in Europe, the minimum of dollar against the euro, pound and Australian dollar is updated, AUDUSD pair fell in Asian trading session from 0.9245 to 0.9225. All allies are against the buyers, but we do not wait a decrease of AUDUSD for today, the technical picture indicates about correction. We should expect a correction in the cross-rates and they will push AUDUSD to recovery.

After the fall of the dollar to 0.8770, USDCHF rate returned to the moving average line. The situation remains uncertain, but we would venture to consider the growth today. Yesterday’s model is reversal for us, but as the trend is bearish, signal to boost the dollar may be cancelled. We do not consider the fall of USDCHF because of FOMC meeting.

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