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29 April Forex daily review

Sergiy Zlyvko
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On Tuesday, after an unpleasant surprise from Germany, the dollar index rebounded to 79.85. Indicators of consumer inflation expectations were lower than expectations and caused sharp fluctuations in pairs with the euro. EURUSD broke the support at 1.3845 and quite easily slid into the area of 1.3800. By the close of trading in Europe, EURUSD achieved intra-day low at 1.3805.

Today at 7.55 GMT Germany will publish data on the labor market. At 9.00 GMT data on consumer prices in the Eurozone will be published. Economists expected in April acceleration of inflation to 0.8% against 0.5% a month earlier. If the figures will be lower than expected – EURUSD will update a minimum and the ECB will apply unconventional measures to fight deflation (negative factor for the euro) on May 8.

At 12.15 GMT ADP index (an important indicator before the publication of the U.S. labor market) will be released. At 12.30 GMT preliminary data on changes in GDP in the U.S. for the 1st quarter will be announced. At 18.00 GMT Fed will announce its interest rate decision and program.

Given the number of important macro data for the currency market, the forward-looking scenarios do not take into account the fundamental data. Projections are based on technical and graphical analysis. Today we do not advise to work in the market. Tomorrow, May 1 – Europe rests.

At 9.00 GMT EURUSD is trading at 1.3825. Price is between two price levels of 1.3850 and 1.3790, so the forecast decline is considered at 1.3790 and then transition into a correctional phase.

After falling to 1.6790, GBPUSD rate rebounded to 1.6845 against the background of a sharp decline of EURGBP cross-rate. GBPUSD is trading at 1.6815. This day is saturated with the news, so we’re not taking them into account. The day will be volatile. We venture to suggest that GBPUSD fall to 1.6790. Closer to the Fed meeting, return to moving average line is expected.

From a minimum rate of 0.9225, AUDUSD recovered to the trend line. We were expecting less growth. Given that the indicators have already moved to sales area, by the close of trading in Europe we are waiting a decline forward from AUDUSD to 0.9235.

On Tuesday, USDCHF rate recovered to daily moving average line. After reaching 0.8845, the pair moved in a sideways trend. We expect shot up to 0.8860 from the range and then decline to 0.8835.

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