Analysis and Opinion »

Pound takes a whack back down to 1.50

FXTM UUIIFXBR
Share on StockTwits
Published on
www.forextime.com

Just as I was beginning to think that the negative GBP sentiment which was already weakening investor attraction towards the GBP was unable to deteriorate any further, it further deteriorated. The GBPUSD just took another whack and slipped back down to 1.5076 following the Bank of England (BoE) minutes release unexpectedly announcing that the two dissenting members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) had committed a complete U-turn and switched their votes back to “NO” against a UK interest rate rise. The reasoning behind the switching in votes is linked to the BoE’s ever-growing dovish views on inflation, nonetheless the switching in allegiance from the dissenting members has most likely swept away any remaining optimism that the BoE might have raised rates this year.

As a result, we are looking at the increasing prospects for the GBP to continue suffering from a lack of attraction for perhaps at least the first half of the current year. There are multiple different factors that are going to be weighing on investors’ minds right now, with each factor possibly making an investor even more reluctant to enter the GBP. For example, the common consensus is that UK inflation levels are going to continue weakening and possibly enter a short-term disinflation period before inflation rises again later on. There is also a UK General Election in a few months and after the complete whirlwind in political uncertainty with the Scottish Referendum last September, you would expect potential buyers would prefer to wait for any potential uncertainty to clear up before considering purchasing.

On top of disinflation worries and potential political concerns, there are clear indications out there that UK domestic momentum is slowing down. Although the UK economy remains the fastest growing in the advanced world and projected growth of 2.7% this year is nothing to roll your eyes at, investor awareness that the BoE have adopted a laissez-faire approach towards raising interest rates – and that prospects for a UK rate rise for the remainder of the year could just be wishful thinking – is basically going to continue reducing investor sentiment towards the GBP. As such, we are limiting GBPUSD upside gains to either USD weakness or eased UK household budgets following the drop in oil providing retail sales figures with a boost. So far, each of these have only provided the GBPUSD bulls with a short-term boost.

Bearing in mind all recent USD weakness has been temporary, any sudden USD gains could really put this pair at risk to dropping below 1.50 – which would have been completely unthinkable to even imagine as of August 2014.

Written by Jameel Ahmad, Chief Market Analyst at FXTM.

Follow Jameel on Twitter @Jameel_FXTM

For more information please visit: Forex Time

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and ideas and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime Ltd, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.

Risk Warning: There is a high level of risk involved with trading leveraged products such as forex and CFDs. You should not risk more than you can afford to lose, it is possible that you may lose more than your initial investment. You should not trade unless you fully understand the true extent of your exposure to the risk of loss. When trading, you must always take into consideration your level of experience. If the risks involved seem unclear to you, please seek independent financial advice

NOTES TO EDITORS

The FXTM brand name was founded by Andrey Dashin in December 2012. FXTM provides access to the global currency market and offers trading in forex, precious metals, Share CFDs, ETF CFDs and CFDs on Commodity Futures. Trading is available via the MT4 and MT5 platforms with spreads starting from just 0.5 on Standard trading accounts and from 0.1 on ECN trading accounts. Bespoke trading support and services are provided based on each client’s needs and ambitions – from novices, to experienced traders and institutional investors. ForexTime Limited is regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC), with licence number 185/12 and FT Global Limited is regulated by the International Financial Services Commission (IFSC) with license numbers IFSC/60/345/TS/14 and IFSC/60/345/APM/14.

The post Pound takes a whack back down to 1.50 appeared first on Forex Circles.

Share on StockTwits