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Trading Outlook *Pending – AUD/USD

Jarratt Davis
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Originally updated: 07:20

Trading Bias: Short *Pending

Currency pair: AUD/USD

Current Sentiment: Bearish

In today’s trading session we will be focussing on selling opportunities on the AUD/USD.


Overnight the RBA Monetary Policy Statement was taken as less dovish by the market despite cutting their growth estimates from 2.75% to 1.75%, this is due to the RBA failing to provide any further commentary regarding the potential for further changes to monetary policy or any forward guidance whatsoever.

The AUD was further aided by the recent spike in Oil, fundamentally however the RBA have recently cut rates so we can view any rallies as opportunities to get in and start selling the currency against the USD of course pending NFP figures and average hourly earnings data.

Due to the above we will be sitting on the sidelines at this stage of the session, there will definitely be notable movement on this pair and will be looking for a positive NFP reading to give the market a reason to start buying the USD back against the AUD.

Of more importance we want to be paying attention to US average hourly earnings this will give us a gauge as to how healthy the labour data coming from the US, bearing in mind quality over quantity.


We expect notable movement on this pair throughout the session, with our bias prior to US data being released being that this pair will sell off during today’s session obviously awaiting each data point.

There is strong resistance at 0.7900 – 0.7915 which could provide trading opportunities should the price pull back. Look for the price to bounce off this level if it retraces back to it.

Remember to be aware of intra-day news as this can very often change the sentiment which makes our trade weaker. Look for any news that could be Positive for this pair, which would change the sentiment to bullish.

Other Market Moving News:

Later during today’s calendar we have SNB foreign currency reserves, this will give us an insight into what scale the central bank has been intervening on the EUR/CHF, if there is a large deviation on this figure we can expect some movement on the EUR and CHF pairs.

We also have employment data coming from Canada and can therefore look for opportunities to trade this data point against the USD pending US NFP data.

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