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Trading Outlook – AUD/USD

Jarratt Davis
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Originally updated: 07:00

Trading Bias: SHORT

Currency pair: AUD/USD

Current Sentiment: Bearish

In today’s trading session we will be focussing on selling opportunities on the AUD/USD.

Fundamentals:

Overnight we saw the AUD initially spike down 30 pips against the USD following Chinese trade data with Australian exports to China falling by over 35%, we have pivotal data points coming from Australia throughout the week with the potential for further selling pressure mounting up as we can expect the RBA to use every opportunity to talk down the currency given their opinion that the currency is currently overvalued and resilience from the currency following their recent cutting of rates .

It also bears mentioning that over the weekend PM Tony Abbott has narrowly held on to leadership with Aussie politics somewhat shell shocked as they struggle to find direction all of which surrounds the AUD in uncertainty.

Technicals:

We expect this pair to sell off during today’s session and throughout the week.

There is strong resistance at 0.78260 – 0.78350 which could provide trading opportunities should the price pull back. Look for the price to bounce off this level if it retraces back to it.

Remember to be aware of intra-day news as this can very often change the sentiment which makes our trade weaker. Look for any news that could be positive for this pair, which could temporarily change the sentiment to bullish.

Other Market Moving News:

Thomas Jordan head of the SNB stated that they are still viewing the CHF as overvalued and are prepared to intervene again if deemed necessary, he continued stating that they have more capacity to lower interest rates further.

There has been further uncertainty surrounding Greece and as consequence the EUR as Greece and the EU struggle to find an amicable agreement.

Later in the week we have insightful data coming from the UK in the form of Carney’s open letter to the government – in which he is bound by mandate to explain the significant fall in inflation – with the plunge in oil prices compelling the BoE to drastically revise their inflation forecasts for 2015.

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