Generalized Forex Forecast for 9-13 March 2015
Looking at what has been happening on the currency markets for the past few weeks, we get the impression that soon our screens will show EUR/USD/CHF = 1.0000.
In the meantime, generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies and forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can note that… analysts are simply perplexed: 25% support growth, 25% support a fall and 50% are just at a loss. Therefore, in our forecast for the coming week, we will primarily focus on the indicators and secondly on our own logic and intuition:
– for the EURUSD pair, the corridor 1.0760-1.1225 is most probable, with prevailing bearish trends and the pair’s downward tendency to the level of 1.0700;
– GBPUSD may rebound to around 1.5225 at the start of the week, followed by a fall all the way down to 1.4910;
– the USDJPY pair is likely to rise to the last week’s high of 121.27 and further to the range of 121.80-122.50. Its support will be at 119.50-119.80;
– the previous plan for USDCHF stands – moving step by step up towards the symbolic level of 1.0000. The only thing that we can predict is that the movement will be smoother than last week.
As for last week’s forecast, it turned out to be quite modest:
– as predicted, the EURUSD pair spent the first half of the week in a sideways trend but then, thanks to the ECB’s actions and reports from the USA, the pair easily broke through the lower boundary of the range and went down sharply, proving that indicators could be much more accurate than the deliberations of high-browed analysts. (Remember that 83% of indicators pointed towards the fall of the pair while only 32% of analysts were of this opinion.);
– we predicted that GBPUSD would fall to 1.5000 and then further to 1.4810 during March. But over the past week, the pair completed a massive part of the set task at a record-breaking pace and was short of 1.5000 by a mere 30 points;
– last week, USDJPY was predicted to go up to the level of 120.50. It did happen as a matter of fact – the pair completed the weekly session at 120.81. Yet, just a few hours before that the pair had reached 121.27 and only after that it returned to the specified level;
– the USDCHF pair also easily beat the target. It was predicted to advance smoothly up to 0.9735 but actually it briskly rose at an angel of almost 45 degrees and made it to 0.9854, exceeding the set target by 120 points.
Roman Butko, NordFX
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