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Weekly Risk Events Video 30th September – 3rd April

Jarratt Davis
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Friday 3rd April 2015

It is all about the data from NFP. What are the most important things to look out for? It is the hourly average earning figure. It‘s the absolute key to this set of data. The perfect scenario would be if NFP would come up to 250k. This is absolutely great figure and a great headline. In reality, as long as it stays over 200k markets won‘t be too concerned. Even if it comes out to 220k or 210k, markets will not be that bothered. It’s pretty much the same with unemployment rates.  As long as it does not start picking up and stays at 5.5% or lower markets will be happy and pretty comfortable with that. The focus, as I mentioned before, is at the average earning figure. It has to come up at 0.2% or above. Ideally, to get a dollar booming and to get buyers back in the market we need an average earning to come up in a positive way. We need to come out at 0.2% or above. 0.4% or 0.5% could be big figures as well. Basically, the higher –  the better. Now, if this figure will be negative, basically, if there is a deviation of the average hourly earnings, that could dictate a move generated by all 3 of those points.

The other thing to bear in mind is that this Friday is the European bank holiday in the UK and Europe so the liquidity will be much lower, thus, the reactions and the moves in the market could be much bigger.

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