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Trading Outlook – AUD/NZD

Jarratt Davis
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www.jarrattdavis.com

Originally updated: 08:00

Trading Bias: SHORT

Currency pair: AUD/NZD

Current Sentiment: Bearish

In today’s trading session we will be focussing on selling opportunities on AUD/NZD.

Fundamentals:

The USD traded higher overnight whilst the AUD underperformed following heightened expectations for the RBA to cut rates at their next meeting, the OIS is pricing in a 74% chance of a 25bps cut next week from last weeks 61% probability.

Overnight we had ANZ Business Confidence from New Zealand, which came out better than expected – this could provide some minor support for the NZD and help push AUDNZD lower.

Technicals:

We expect this pair to fall lower during today’s session.

There is strong resistance at 1.0250 should it rally that far, failing that, around 1.0200 is noted as medium term level of resistance which could provide trading opportunities should the price pull back. Look for the price to bounce off this level if it retraces back to it.

Remember to be aware of intra-day news as this can very often change the sentiment which makes our trade weaker. Look for any news that could negative for the NZD which would change the sentiment on this pair

Other Market Moving News:

Looking ahead on today’s calendar we have US GDP, which could give us a good reason to go long USD (short AUD/USD) if we get a positive reading.

News overnight news is relatively limited with UK GFK Consumer Confidence coming in at 4 vs the expected 2. Also WTI Crude futures fell overnight, now set for a third quarteley decline – this fall lower in WTI has also weakened the CAD over the past few months so we can look for this to continue.

We also have Canadian GDP coming out later, this could be a good event to look at selling CAD due to expectations of a weaker GDP number.

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