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The opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis indicate that a growing number of analysts are becoming confused as to what to expect from the currency markets. If in the last two weeks the number of such analysts was 30%, this week it has exceeded 40% and is approaching 50%. The forecasts are:
– the analysts’ opinions regarding EURUSD have radically changed. Instead of a fall, they now predict a rise to around 1.1130-1.1250, although some indicators point to a sideways trend with quite strong volatility;
– the forecasts for GBPUSD have also turned around completely, and now the pair is pushing upwards to at least 1.5000;
– surprisingly, a third of the analysts believe that the USDJPY pair is also aiming to grow, although almost all the indicators point to its fall. As a compromise, we suggest that the coming week will more likely see a sideways trend with prevailing bullish tendencies. The target will remain at 121.50-122.00;
– finally, USD/CHF. You may disbelieve it but even in this case 47% of the analysts claim that the pair will rise (with only 16% against it). At the same time, 91% of the indicators are for the pair’s fall. It is hard to know who’s right but looking at more long-term forecasts, we can expect the pair to return to the 1.0000 mark after all.

As for last week’s forecast:
– at the beginning of the week, the forecast for EURUSD was fulfilled 100%, in the middle of the week – also 100%, however, towards the end of the week, with the extended Easter bank holidays, the pair decided to rewind to the level of seven days ago. We’d predicted that the pair would fall to around 1.0600-1.0750, and on the last day of March it fell to 1.0715. After that, it should have stabilized in this range for some time. Another correct guess – the sideways trend held throughout the middle of the week. We’d made no predictions for after that. In reality, EURUSD rebounded upwards so much that it returned to the level of one week ago;
– two weeks ago, GBPUSD was predicted to be in a sideways trend under bearish influence and fall to the level of 1.4700. The Pound came up short of just 40 points to fulfil this, having reached 1.4740 at its minimum;
– the analysts and indicators’ forecasts for USDJPY were at loggerheads last week. Nonetheless, the pair was expected to move up to 120.50, which it almost reached, stalling at 120.30;
– the forecast for USDCHF was confirmed – its weekly chart was supposed to repeat that one of USD/JPY. The second part of the forecast was a rise to 0.9750, which the pair delivered by reaching the 0.9756 mark.

Roman Butko, NordFX

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