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EUR/USD below 1.0950

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• EUR/USD consolidated during the most of the European trading session Monday, as the major European markets were closed due to holidays. Tuesday’s market is likely to be more active as European investors reassess the initial reaction to the weak US employment report. EURUSD declined late in the US trading session, breaking below our support (now turned into resistance) level of 1.0950 (R1). At the time of writing, the pair is testing that level and a break above that hurdle is likely to push the rate towards 1.1045 (R2) again. However, looking at our short-term momentum signs, the RSI declined after finding resistance at its 70 line, while the MACD has topped, crossed its trigger line and is pointing down. These indicators amplify the case that the next wave could be to the downside, perhaps for a test of 1.0865 (S1) support line. On the daily chart, the overall trend is still to the downside. EURUSD is printing lower peaks and lower troughs below both the 50- and the 200-day moving averages.

• Support: 1.0865 (S1), 1.0800 (S2), 1.0710 (S3).

• Resistance: 1.0950 (R1), 1.1045 (R2), 1.1165 (R3) .

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