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Crude Oil Breaks Out as Inventories Finally Ease

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Crude oil prices consolidated Thursday after experiencing its best gains of 2015 on Wednesday.  Price action is breaking out of its current range following bullish inventory data released by the US Department of Energy.

According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels from the previous week. This compares to expectations of a build of 3 million barrels and last week’s build of more than 10 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels last week, which was also more bullish than expected. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.0 million barrels last week and are in the middle of the average range for this time of year.

On the demand front, total products demand over the last four-week period averaged 19.1 million barrels per day, up by 4.3% from the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, gasoline demand averaged 8.9 million barrels per day, up by 0.7% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel demand averaged about 4.0 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up by 2.9% from the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is up 10.7% compared to the same four-week period last year.

The Department of Energy also reported this week that the US has the potential to eliminate net U.S. energy imports sometime between 2020 and 2030. This reflects changes in both supply and demand, as continued growth in oil and natural gas production and the use of renewables combine with demand-side efficiencies to moderate demand growth. The United States has been a net importer of energy since the 1950s.

Support on crude oil is seen near the 20-day moving average at $54.15.  Momentum has turned positive with the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index printing in positive territory after recently generating a buy signal.  This occurs as the spread (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the 9-day moving average of the spread.  The next level of target resistance is seen near $60.


The post Crude Oil Breaks Out as Inventories Finally Ease appeared first on Forex Circles.

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