EMU Economic Sentiment Indicator


Released on a monthly basis by the European Commission, the Economic Sentiment Indicator captures sectoral confidence in economic activity in the Eurozone. The indicator is comprised of five sectoral confidence indicators, including industrial confidence, service confidence, consumer confidence, construction confidence and retail trade confidence.
Latest Release: 27-11-2014 10:00:00
Next Release: 30-01-2014 10:00:00
Source:European Commission

The EUR/USD hit a fresh 3-year low, as sentiment in the Eurozone continues to erode. Momentum on the currency pair is negative, despite slightly higher than expected inflation numbers report in Germany on Monday. US, yields are rising pushing the yield differential in favor of the greenback, which should continue to generate headwinds for the European currency.

Eurozone ESI economic confidence fell to 99.9 in September from 100.6 in the previous month. The decline in sentiment was in line with expectations and reflects the weaker PMI and IFO readings, adding to negative confidence data in September. Negative sentiment will likely keep the ECB in the spotlight with a full-blown QE likely in the cards.

German state HICP inflation numbers were slightly higher than expected, with headline rates remaining unchanged in Brandenburg, NRW and Bavaria, but ticking slightly higher in Saxony and Hesse. Spanish HICP increased to -0.3% year over year from -0.5% year over year this means the Eurozone rate could come in slightly higher than initially expected, which would add to the arguments of the hawks at the ECB and to the arguments against further moves from the central bank this week. Lingering hopes that the ECB will be forced to move to broad based asset purchases eventually remain, but that will depend on data releases, geo-political developments and the impact of the ECB's latest round of easing measures, with the second TLTRO in December...

  • Forex » European Confidence Figures Soften Further
    Posted Sep 29th, 2014 at 09:06 AM

    The European Commission has published updates to a broad range of sentiment indicators for the European Union member countries this morning. The headline Consumer Confidence number for September is...

  • Forex » US Dollar Rebounds as GDP Accelerates
    Posted Aug 28th, 2014 at 05:58 PM

    The US dollar rebounded against a basket of currencies Thursday, as the US economy accelerated faster than initially expected in the second quarter, while pending home sales rebounded sharply last...

  • Analysis and Opinion » Euro Reverses Gains as Russian Tension Intensify
    Posted Aug 28th, 2014 at 11:19 AM

    The EUR/USD is lower reversing earlier gains as separatists, backed by Russian troops, reported to be advancing in the eastern part of the country. The euro has dipped to below 1.3180 after earlier...