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US Durable Goods Orders On The Rise

James Boston
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US Consumer Sentiment is continuing to remain strong according to the latest Bloomberg Consumer Confidence survey, this weekly check on the pulse of the consumer sector in the world’s largest economy is now showing a reading ox 37.2, this is in line with last week’s number of 37.2. Meanwhile there are ongoing signs of robustness in the services sector judging by the preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from Markit Economics, the early reading on the September statistic for the Services PMI is showing a figure of 58.5 in comparison to the August final print of 59.5 and a market consensus estimate for 59.0 this month.

The headline release for the US economy today however is the August Durable Goods Orders data. Month on month the key Durable Goods Orders number has fallen –18.2%, this follows an expansion of 22.6% in the month of July and has come in ahead of the market consensus estimate for a contraction of -18.0% in the August numbers. The less volatile Core Durable Goods Orders figure is showing a change on the month of 0.7%, July saw this contract by -0.7% and a reversal to this level of 0.7% expansion was anticipated in the latest data. Excluding Defence Orders the Durable Goods number is reading at –19.0% compared to 24.90% growth in July, a fall of -19.20% was anticipated today. When Air Transport Related Orders are also stripped out the volatility further reduces to produce a reading of 0.6% change on the month, this follows the previous reading in this category of -0.7% and a market consensus estimate for 0.5% expansion.

Earlier in the day the weekly Jobless numbers were made available, the Initial Claims now stand at 293k for the week ended 19th September, this represents a change from the prior week’s 280k print and a market estimate of 300k. Continuing Claims for the week ending 12th September now read at 2.439M compared to 2.429M the previous week.

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