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GBPUSD Dips On UK Unemployment Data

James Boston
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GBPUSD Dips On UK Unemployment Data

A predicted drop in the British unemployment figures has failed to materialise according to the latest data released by the National Statistics Office. The ILO Unemployment Rate for the three month’s to September has been announced at 6.0%, the same figure as the previous month, the consensus forecast was for this to drop by a point to 5.9%. The Change in Employment figure was measured at just 112k which fell short of the 125k projection that would have taken the official rate lower, nonetheless this is a marked improvement on the previous month’s employment growth number of 46k.

A more up to date picture of the UK’s employment situation can be seen in the early October measurements also released this morning. According to the latest figures the Jobless Claims in the UK have officially fallen by -20.4k, this is an improvement on the September number of 18.4k and surpasses the anticipated reading of 20.0k. This improvement however is not sufficient to impact on the Claimant Count Rate, which has once again come in at 2.8%, there was an anticipation for this to pick up by a point to 2.7%.

The jobs market in the UK is no doubt improving, albeit at a slightly more moderate pace than many commentators expected. In addition to there being more people at work the earnings levels appear to be picking up also. Measured over three months to September the Average Weekly Earnings statistic has increased by a significant amount, the latest reading is showing a 1.0% increase in wages, this is a strong improvement on the previous reading of 0.7% and easily came in ahead of the 0.8% that was expected today. The same metric excluding bonuses has been announced as having increased by 1.3%, this compares to a prior reading of 0.9% and an expectation of 1.1% in today’s numbers. The improving wage situation in combination with the gradually falling unemployment rate is evidence that the slack in the labour market previously identified by the Bank of England is beginning to dissipate.

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