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ADP Employment Report Pending

H.S. Borji
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The ADP Institute will publish private payroll employment data Wednesday, giving investors an advance estimate of US job creation. The ADP Institute could show the US private sector added more than 190,000 jobs last month, a sign the labour market was rebounding after a subdued winter.

Private payrolls in February rose at a seasonally adjusted pace of 139,000, following a revised gain of 127,000 at the beginning of the year, according to ADP estimates. Official data courtesy of the Labor Department showed US employers added 175,000 payrolls in February and 129,000 in January.

The ADP report is expected to drive market sentiment ahead of the Labor Department’s official nonfarm payrolls report, which is scheduled for release Friday. A significant deviation from consensus estimates (in either direction) could spark volatility for the US dollar. Forex traders will be willing to sell US dollars should the employment report fall considerably below estimates, and buy US dollars should job creation soar above the 190,000 threshold.

A broad consensus of economists polled by Reuters expects a reading of 195,000 tomorrow. A median estimate of economists polled by Bloomberg is calling for 193,000.

In the early North American session the US dollar index was at 80.04, a loss of nearly 0.1 percent.

While the US Federal Reserve has effectively abandoned its 6.5 percent unemployment rate threshold, market participants will continue monitoring labour market data to determine the pace of US recovery. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report could see the unemployment rate fall back to 6.6 percent, according to estimates.

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