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NIESR Sets to Release Q1 GDP Estimate

H.S. Borji
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NIESR Sets to Release Q1 GDP Estimate

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research will provide an estimate of UK first quarter GDP growth Tuesday. The estimate provides a useful benchmark in which to assess the three-month performance of the UK economy ahead of the official data.

The UK economy expanded 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter, and 1.8 percent in all of 2013, official data from the Office for National Statistics showed earlier this year. Between December and February, gross domestic product expanded 0.8 percent, according to last month’s NIESR estimate.

The NIESR’s last quarterly forecast said the UK economy would expand 2.5 percent in 2014 and 2.1 percent next year.

“Unless output turns down again, the recession is over,” the NIESR said last month in a press release. “Output is less than 1 percent below its pre-recession peak (January 2008) and we expect this peak will be recovered over the course of 2014.”

The forex market will actively monitor the NIESR reading. As long as the quarterly estimate falling in line with the previous quarter’s growth figures, volatility for the British pound should be kept at bay.

The GBPUSD pair reached a daily high of 1.6622. In the late North American session, the pair was trading at 1.6610, up more than 0.2 percent. The EURGBP tread water for most of the day before notching up an incremental gain of 0.08 percent. The pair consolidated at 0.8273 after trading within a narrow range of 0.8262-0.8284.

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