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Italian Inflation Rate Falls

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Italian inflation data is on the agenda this morning as the country’s National Institute of Statistics publishes updates to a wide range of price growth indicators. The headline figure is the Consumer Price Index (CPI), this has just been released in preliminary form for the month of May and the year on year reading is now 0.5%, this represents a fall from the final April figure of 0.6% but meets the consensus estimate of 0.5%.

The preliminary month on month CPI has also fallen back, this is now showing -0.1% compared to last month’s final reading of 0.2% price growth. The market had expected a flat print of 0.0% change.

The above readings are arrived at using Italy’s own inflation calculating methodology. The EU Norm version of the inflation statistics are arguably more important right now as they feed directly into the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices and as such strongly influence European Central Bank policy decisions. The preliminary year on year CPI EU Norm figure for Italy is currently reading at 0.4%, this is lower than the final April print of 0.6% and also undershoots the 0.5% market consensus estimate.

The Italian CPI EU Norm month on month number similarly misses target this month, a preliminary reading of -0.1% has just been published, 0.1% had been expected following on from last month’s 0.5% increase.

On the producer side of the equation the inflation numbers are similarly disappointing. Earlier this morning the final Producer Price Indices for April were published. Month on month the reading came in at -0.3%, this represents a slight down tick on the expected -0.2% print which would have kept this statistic in line with the previous month.

The Producer Price Index year on year also disappointed markets, although this number, at -1.5%, showed a slight improvement on the previous reading of -1.6%, it failed to meet the market expectation of -1.3%.

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