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Strong US PMI Figures Distract From Poor GDP Data

James Boston
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Strong US PMI Figures Distract From Poor GDP Data

This afternoon has provided another significant round of data releases out of the US. Following Monday’s strong Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector, Markit Economics have just completed the picture by releasing both the Services and Composite PMI data for June. The Services number has come in at 61.2 compared to 58.1 in May and a consensus estimate of 58.0. This makes the Composite number 61.1, compared to 58.6 last month.

Prior to the PMI data update the US Bureau of Economic Analysis published the final Gross Domestic Product figure for Q1, this annualized figure has been announced as -2.9% compared to the previous quarters 2.6% growth, it has been acknowledged that the US economy had a slow start to the year however expectations were for a GDP contraction of just -1.7% in Q1.

The important monthly Durable Goods Orders data has also been made public this afternoon by the US Census Bureau. The headline reading for May is -1.0%, this compares to April’s 0.8% increase, markets had expected flat 0% growth on the month. The Ex-Transportation number has come in at -0.1%, this grew at a rate of 0.4% in April, the consensus estimate for May was for this expansion of 0.4%.

Personal Consumption Expenditure Prices have risen 1.4% quarter on quarter for Q1 of this year, expectations here were for this inflation measure to remain in line with the Q4 2013 figure of 1.4%. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure data was running at 1.2% for Q1 identical to the 1.2% seen the previous quarter, indications were for this figure to also remain stable at 1.2%.

The final inflation metric announced for the day is in the form of the Gross Domestic Product Price Index, this is reading at 1.3% for the first quarter of 2014 compared to a previous reading of 1.6% and a consensus estimate of 1.3%.

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