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Fall In US Consumer Sentiment

James Boston
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The July Reuters / Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has just been published in the US, it shows a reading of 81.8 which represents a slight fall on the June reading of 82.5, market analysts were expecting a reading of 82.0 on this key confidence metric.

The US has also just received two updates on the strength of the manufacturing sector. Firstly, Markit Economics Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has come in at 55.1, in June this stood at 57.3 and the consensus was for a print around 56.3 today. Secondly, the Institute for Supply Management has released the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI, this is at odds with the trend at a reading of 57.1, in June this number was 55.3 and the consensus estimate for July is 56.0.

The ISM also issued an update to it’s Prices Paid Index, an indication of price inflation expectations in the manufacturing sector, this is currently reading at 59.5, by comparison the figure was 58 in June and there was an expectation for it to rise to 59 this month. In the construction sector prices fell by -1.8% in the month of June according to the just released Construction Spending Index, this index rose by 0.1% in May and the expectation was for a pick up in the rate to 0.5% last month.

Personal Spending also increased in the US in the month of June, this is now producing a rate of growth of 0.4% compared to the 0.2% experienced in May and the markets prediction that the rate would rise at a pace of 0.4% in June. On the earnings side, Personal Incomes increased at a rate of 0.4% in the month of June, by comparison this metric rose by the same 0.4% during May and the markets had expected the pace of income growth to remain at a rate of 0.4% last month.

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