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Weekly Outlook: April 06 – 10

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There are no any indicators out today from Europe, New Zealand and Australia since is Easter Monday. The only upcoming events are from US, not expected to affect the market importantly. The Markit Services and Composite PMIs are expected to come out. Both the Markit Services and Composite PMIs in March are expected to have been the same as in January. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for March is expected to drop a little to 56.5 from 56.9.

Tomorrow the day will be little busy in the early morning. The attention will be turned on the Reserve Bank of Australia which releases the rate statement and publishes their decision regarding Interest rates. Interest rates dropped to the record low of 2.25% in January after being steady at 2.5% from August 2013. The market consensus for the rates is to remain unchanged.

Going forward, the Markit Services PMIs for Germany, UK, France, Italy, Spain and Eurozone as a whole are coming out, as well as the Markit Composite PMIs for some of them. All of them are forecasted to remain the same except in UK where the Markit Services PMI is expected to increase slightly to 57.0 from 56.7. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will share with us the results of the JOLTS Job Openings Survey for February. Overnight, Bank of Japan will release the Monetary Policy Statement followed by a Press Conference.

On Wednesday, the spotlight of the day is the release of the FOMC minutes from Fed. In Germany Factory Orders seasonally adjusted in January, on a monthly basis, are expected to have improved to 15% from -3.9%. The Eurozone’s Retail Sales in March are estimated to have been -0.2% mom, turning negative after four consecutive months of being positive.
Thursday’s schedule contains the announcement of the BoE’s Interest Rate decision. The decision is unlikely to stoke much interest among sterling investors as the central bank is anticipated to keep its key interest rate unchanged. It has been at that level since March 2009. BoE’s governor in the last speech he has in London said that policy shouldn’t overact to low inflation and that interest rates need be low. The market participants also expect the central bank to keep its bond-purchase target at £275 billion on Thursday.

The Federal Statistical Office of Germany will reveal the seasonally adjusted Trade Balance and Industrial Production for February. The consensus for the trade balance is to edge higher at €20.0B from €19.7B. Industrial Production seasonally adjusted in February are estimated to show a slow down at 0.1% from 0.6% month-over-month.

Finally, on Friday the Canada will hog the limelight since Unemployment rate and Net Change in Employment are due. Unemployment Rate is expected to be the same at 6.8% and Net Employment Change is expected to show an improvement of 0.1K from -1.0K the previous month. In UK, the NIESR will release GDP estimate for the months from January to March, no consensus is available yet. Both the UK Manufacturing and Industrial Production are expected to have slowed down in March. On the yearly basis, Manufacturing Production is expected to have slowed down to 1.3% from 1.9% and Industrial to 0.3% from 1.3%. Switzerland’s unemployment rate will also attract some of the attention among the investors, despite the fact that is expected to have remained at 6.8% in March.

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