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5 November Forex daily review

Sergiy Zlyvko
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On Tuesday euro/dollar and pound/dollar currency pairs showed mixed dynamics among themselves. The British pound became stronger to US dollar and snigle currency at the European session after a release of data in Great Britain, testimonial of business activity unexpected growth in service sector. On news GBPUSD became stronger by 100 points to 1.6062 and suspended rally at the American session after an exit of business activity index in service sector in the USA. Service ISM index constituted 55.4 and it was above the previous value of 54.4 and the forecast of 54 points.

Single currency after strong statistics from Britain and weak data on production inflation in the Eurozone publications remained under pressure and at the American session, updated daily minimum against US dollar. Single currency was sold in cross-rates on conversations that in order to stimulate the growth of Eurozone’s economy, European Central Bank can reduce an interest rate.

Much news is planned for today. We think, the volatility will be high before closing of day. In Asia the dollar was weakened on all market. All this suggests ideas that flat will be tightened to M. Dragi’s press conference, and before trading closing in Europe we will be on the side of eurobulls. We don’t know the reason of sharp dollar decline in Asia.

Euro/dollar rate at the American session after the publication of strong service ISM decreased to 1.3448. On Wednesday at the trading in Asia, the rate of euro/dollar was recovered to 1.3520. It is not the turn, but there are all signs that correction against strengthening of pound will proceed to the 1.3560. For today the dense block of macrodata on European countries is planned. From 8:15 till 9:00 GMT time the data on business activity in service sectors of Spain, France, Germany and the Eurozone will be published. At 9:30 GMT the traders should pay an attention to September data on industrial production in Great Britain. At 11:00 GMT the publication of industrial orders in Germany is expected. The traders should pay close attention to any surprise from macrodata that will be reflected in cross of EURGBP and respectively for euro/dollar. The closing for euro we expect near 1.3500.

Rally of pound came to the end on 1.6060, and in the morning the pound reached the 1.6085. AO indicator turns out that the pound shall return to 1.6065, but today at 9:30 GMT there is a publication of September data on industrial production in Great Britain. Economists expect an increase in production and the pound under these data can update a new maximum on European session. According to the main scenario we consider the growth to 1.6060 and further transition in ascending range 1.6050-1.6080.

On Tuesday AUDUSD was closed with a decrease, though bulls could achieve success when after pound/dollar it updated the maximum. After the publication of service ISM the price returned to the 0.9495. In Asia the rate was recovered to the level 0.9525. 0.9535 level acts as resistance. According to the main scenario we consider a rebound from the resistance.

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