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11 November Forex daily review

Sergiy Zlyvko
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During yesterday’s trading the U.S. dollar strengthened against the British pound, Australian dollar and weakened against the single currency and Swiss franc. Due to the holiday in the U.S. and Canada, traders’ activity in the foreign exchange market was low. Macroeconomic statistics in the United States had not published. The American Stock Exchange is working normally, but the banks, debt market and government agencies were closed.

The EURUSD rebounded by 60 points to 1.3415. GBPUSD fell by 50 points to 1.5965. Mixed dynamics was caused by cross-rates for the euro and the pound. The single currency in the crosses has been bought, the pound – sold.

In Asia the dollar rose slightly, but the situation is ambiguous. Mixed dynamics between the euro and the pound makes the situation uncertain. We suggest to wait for the report on Germany and Britain. Maybe the dollar will not rise today. As a result, flat drags on and tomorrow there will be a blow to the dollar. At 7:00 GMT in Germany the October Inflation Report will be published. At 9:30 GMT – exposure data on consumer prices in the UK.

On Monday, the euro/dollar fell back to 1.3415. Hourly indicators have unloaded and now ready for a single currency sales, but we recommend waiting for the fundamental data for Germany and Britain. There are thoughts that single currency will reduce to 1.3355 and then will bounce back up. Daily indicators turned up and it will deter sellers today. If the EURUSD will consolidate at 1.3315 level, then tomorrow we will consider the euro’s fall to 1.3230.

GBPUSD is on the thin market and the growth of EURGBP cross back to Friday’s lows. On Monday, the market was flatting. Key pairs showed a mixed trend between them. 1.5950 level stands as strong support. At 5:00 GMT GBPUSD was trading at 1.5981. Today, dense block of macro is scheduled for Britain, so we should make decisions after the news publication. There is a risk that there will be another rebound to 1.6000 level. Break of the 1.5950 will open the way to 1.5870.

At the end of Monday, AUDUSD closed slightly lower. In Asia on weak business confidence index NAB AUDUSD updated the minimum at 0.9324. 0.9335 level acts as support. On hourly timeframe we would refrain from short positions. There is a bullish divergence between the price and AO. So if selling AUD, but only after AO will move to the positive zone and AC indicator will show bear divergence.

From 0.9240 level USDCHF rate fell to 0.9190. From this level the price has strayed and buyers are making new attempts to develop an upward movement. We expect the growth to 0.9240 and then back to 0.92. Break of 0.9250 resistance is not considered.

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