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25-29 November Forex weekly forecast

Sergiy Zlyvko
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U.S. dollar hasn’t changed its positions hardly on the world market for the week 18 – 22 November. Minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve signaled that the regulator can start quantitative easing program reducing and this helped to strengthen the positions of the U.S. currency, but it could not form a stable trend against its European competitors. The ECB does not hurry with additional monetary easing policy, which lays in quotes previous week. USDX dollar index in the reporting period lost 0.1%.

Coming week will be the last week of the month, but because there is not a large number of scheduled macroeconomic releases that could have a significant impact on the dollar. The main event will be a report on durable goods orders, scheduled to be published on Wednesday 27th November at 13.30 GMT. Data from the world’s largest economy recently has been received mixed and therefore there may be any deviation from forecasts’ median. Nevertheless, the report is unlikely to have a significant impact on investor sentiment and could trigger a short-term increase in volatility.

On Thursday, November 28 in the U.S. will be holiday business day. The country will be celebrating Thanksgiving. On Friday, the activity during the U.S. session may be minimal, since traditionally entire weekend is a festive time.

From traders on single European currency there will be also quiet week. This period any important macroeconomic releases and events that could change the prospects for the euro are not scheduled. Dynamics of EURUSD pair this period will depend on the behavior of the dollar along the entire market, as well as support and resistance levels. From technical analysis point of view, important level for EURUSD pair is seen at 1.3575. Overcoming could open the way to 1.3650 area.

The British pound is expected revised GDP data for the third quarter (November 27, 09.30 GMT), as well as Mark Carney’s performance (November 28, 10.30 GMT). Sterling positions are very strong now and it has a good chance to continue to grow next week. However, for this it will be necessary to overcome resistance at 1.6240 area, although it requires a fundamental support. If it succeeds, it GBPUSD be up to the motion area of 1.6350.

For Australian and New Zealand dollars there is no the important events that could significantly affect their position in the economic calendar. Nevertheless, Aussie may continue to remain under pressure. Concern about high rate of the Reserve Bank may also be reflected in a further decrease in the rate as soon as inflationary trends will provide such an opportunity. The purpose of the downward movement for AUDUSD pair is 0.8870 area.

The Japanese yen also tends to continue its decline. Anyway, the chances are high that the Fed will cut the program of quantitative easing in the next six months and the Bank of Japan with at least a high probability will continue to work to increase the monetary base to fight deflation. We are waiting for testing 103.30 resistance in the coming weeks.

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