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26 November Forex daily review

Sergiy Zlyvko
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On Tuesday after trading, U.S. dollar closed in negative territory. The dollar was closed with growth against the Australian and New Zealand dollars. In the afternoon, the dollar fell across all the market. The decline was caused by disappointing data of U.S. consumer confidence index. And the report on the number of permits issued for residential construction in the United States surpassed predicted values.

U.S. Department of Commerce has not published the data on housing starts on Tuesday. They did not have time to gather information because of shutdown. Report for September and October will be published on December 18, together with the November data.

The number of permits, issued for residential construction in the U.S. in October rose by 6.2% to 1034 thousand in annualized against 974 thousand in the previous month (forecast was 940 thousand).

Consumer confidence in the U.S. in November fell to 70.4 points against 72.4 the previous month (forecast was 72.2). Current situation assess index fell to 72.0 against 72.6 in October. The expectations index fell to 69.3 against 72.2 the previous month.

After the speech of M. Carney and data from the U.S. publishing, finding support near 1.6140, British currency has returned to the level of 1.6120 in Asia and attempts to consolidate above 1.6240. At 3:45 GMT GBPUSD was trading at 1.6225.
The euro/dollar found support at around 1.3520 and closed the day at 1.3575 high. Weak consumer confidence index in the U.S. and talk about that at the December meeting the ECB will not cut interest rates, cheered the euro bulls. In Asia trading, the euro/dollar tested 1.3600.

Dollar in Asia continues to lose strength. Euro bulls storm the level of 1.36. The British pound is preparing to pass 1.6240. The activity in Asia is troubling. Europe can deploy main Forex rates. Apparently, key pairs growth caused by yen crosses.

On Thursday the United States will celebrate Thanksgiving Day holiday. In this regard, those reports that were scheduled for Thursday will be published today. Important news are scheduled for Wednesday, so volatility in the foreign exchange market expected to be high.

At 9.00 GMT in Germany December index of consumer confidence Gfk will be published. At 9.30 GMT in the UK revised GDP data for the third quarter is going to be published. It is expected that quarterly and annual figures coincide with the preliminary values of 0.8% q/q and 1.5% y/y.

At 13.30 GMT the data on orders for durable goods and the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits becomes known. An hour later, new piece of statistics outcomes. At 14.45 GMT – Chicago PMI index. At 14.55 GMT – final settlement of consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan. And at 15.00 GMT index of leading indicators completes.

The situation remains uncertain for us and with so many macro data there are no actual scripts. If European members support current trend against the U.S. dollar, then the euro/dollar rate to U.S. opening session will reach 1.3635, the support is at 1.3550. Trend line passes through 1.3550. Its breakdown put an end for upward correction.

With further pound strengthening the immediate goal is situated on 1.6285. When rebound from the current level, the purpose we should look at yesterday’s support level – 1.6140.

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