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27 November Forex daily review

Sergiy Zlyvko
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On Wednesday, European currencies have tried to continue to strengthen, started a day earlier, but the upside was limited by technical factors. As a result, EURUSD closed Wednesday in the area of 1.3570 and GBPUSD – in the area of 1.6270.

The U.S. dollar has updated the lows against euro and pound. In European trading dollar was under pressure after the release of the British statistics and findings of the coalition agreement in Germany. Merkel’s block Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) and the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SDPG) created a coalition. The euro/dollar reached the level of 1.3610, the pound/dollar rose to 1.6330 level.

On American statistics the U.S. dollar completely recovered losses against the euro and Swiss franc. Despite the decline in orders for durable goods, dollar bulls pleased with the data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan. Treatment for last week fell by 10 thousand compared to the previous week and reached 316 thousand (323 thousand forecast). Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 75.1 University in November vs. 73.5.

On Thursday in the United States is the national holiday – Thanksgiving Day – a holiday. Surge in volatility in the foreign exchange market can be expected in the European session during macro data for the euro area publication. The dollar index fell back to 80.70 line. Since the U.S. has a holiday, we do one scenario outset by carrying line.

Euro/dollar on U.S. indices weakened to 1.3560. At 8.40 GMT euro traded at 1.3600. 1.3560 level with 1.3590 line acts as support. Given that in the U.S. is a holiday today, we are doing one scenario. Sharp fluctuations are possible on the news from the Eurozone, followed by attenuation at 1.3585.

Pound/dollar fell by 70 points to 1.6255. Support was made by 1.6560 level. The pound/dollar rebounded to 1.6325 from it. We believe that without the American participants, the price remains in yesterday’s range. Ideal option is sideways trend between 1.6330 and 1.6255 levels.

After strong news from Germany and the UK publication, Australian currency in crosses came under pressure. Against this backdrop, the AUDUSD fell instead the growth to 0.9065. This morning in Asia the rate rebounded to 0.9140. We observe a complete overlap of the fall. At 8:49 GMT AUD is trading at 0.9120. On the daily chart at the moment there is a bullish engulfing. When closing near 0.9115-0.9140 a buy signal will be formed. Today we expect the fluctuations near 0.9100.

From the minimum of 0.9040 USDCHF rate on the U.S. statistics bounced to 0.9090 level. Trend line is broken, but considering that in the U.S. today is a holiday, the price may come back again under the line. Our forecast turns out that the franc will return to the area of 0.9055.

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