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Next week Forex forecast

Sergiy Zlyvko
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The U.S. dollar weakened its position somewhat on Forex world market as a strengthening of the U.S. dollar against most major rivals was offset by a significant increase of the single European currency. Macroeconomic statistics, published during the week, was strong enough for the dollar, but was unable to convince the participants of the foreign exchange market that the Fed will reduce quantitative easing program in the near future.

Coming week will be the second working week of the month, so the economic calendar is formed a little pause for key macroeconomic statistics. Market participants continue to digest the data on key macroeconomic indicators, published a week earlier. The main event will be a report on retail sales for November, which will be provided on Thursday December 12 at 13.30 GMT. In addition, participants will gradually prepare for the Fed meeting, scheduled for December 17-18. Respectively, market participants will follow very closely the mouthpiece of the Fed, James Bullard, who will speak to the representatives of CFA Association on Monday at 18.05 GMT.

In general, we believe that the dollar can hold a very volatile week and has the same chances as strengthen and weaken.

Tenderers for the single European currency in the coming week are not expecting in the economic calendar key macroeconomic statistics. After a busy beginning of December, they will be able to take a breath. We believe that the dynamics of EURUSD pair will be determined by horizontal support and resistance levels. In case of established uptrend continuation for EURUSD pair next goal will mark 1.3820.

For pound the most significant events of the week will be the presentation of the Bank of England’s Mark Carney (December 9, during the day) and a report on industrial production for November (December 10, 09.30 GMT). Macroeconomic statistics from the UK lately is very positive. The pace of the British economy recovery is now very high and the position of sterling remains strong enough. Taking into account that GBPUSD pair has already passed through some correction, then assuming the corresponding news background, it can attempt to return to yearly highs at 1.6440.

The Australian dollar is expected labor market data from Australia, which will be published on Thursday, December 12 at 00.30 GMT. Macroeconomic statistics from Australia recently received moderately positive, but Aussie still feels the pressure. After Glenn Stevens made it clear that its highest rate is a threat to the economy, market participants fear intervention by the regulator and aren’t hurry to open long positions. We are still waiting for test yearly lows near 0.8860.

USDJPY pair after the correction of the previous week and in the absence of important macroeconomic statistics may try to return to the area of 103.30 if it holds the support at 101.60.

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