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12 December Forex daily review

Sergiy Zlyvko
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At the trading on Thursday, the U.S. dollar closed up against their competitors. The dollar index DXY rose from a low of 79.80 to 80.25. US dollar strengthened its position to the Australian dollar mostly. Growth amounted to 1.70% or 150 points against AUDUSD.

The Australian dollar has fallen across the market after the head of the RBA Stevens statements, followed by Australian dollar, the gold had fallen, the British pound and the euro. Strong report on U.S. retail sales made further support for the dollar.

During yesterday’s speech, Stevens said that the economy would be better if the Australian dollar is trading closer to 0.8500. Traders heard Stevens and immediately, aggressively were selling Australian currency, it became to decrease the rate. Falling stopped at 0.8910. The price of gold fell to 1223.70. EURUSD backed to 1.3735. Pound/dollar fell to 1.6320. In November retail sales in the U.S. rose by 0.7%, while initial jobless claims rose by 68,000 to 368,000. Market participants ignored labor market report. Ministry of Labour explained that the increase in applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. associated with seasonal volatility that is inherent in the period from Thanksgiving to Christmas.

News today comes not so much: the inflation data (Germany, Spain, USA) and the labor market (EU). One calendar at 8.45 GMT is waiting for the performance of M. Carney. This can be a mistake, there isn’t an event in other calendars.

At 12.30 GMT chief economist of the Bank of England Spencer Dale will perform.

Today after a rollback we expect a new rise in the dollar. We suppose that the dollar index will rise to 80.40.

The euro/dollar in the main scenario fell to 1.3745 mark. Currently, it is only a correction and buying from current levels may increase. Given the fall of the Australian dollar, gold and the European indices, euro cannot go back to 1.3800. We once want more to look for reducing to 1.3720 mark. 1.3740 area is the support. If sellers push bulls at 1.3735, then it will be possible to look closely to 1.3600.

After correction GBPUSD rate fell to 1.6320. The drop was 95 points. From a minimum we count new level of support. If the bulls manage to rise to 1.6385, we expect a new wave of downward moving. If GBPUSD will go right down to it, the immediate goals will be: 1.6290 and 1.6255.

After rolling back to the 0.8960, AUDUSD exchange rate is trading again at 0.8925. As a new target, we consider the level of 0.8890.

USDCHF rate recovered to 0.8910 mark. We suppose that after a pullback to 0.8885, the pair growth will continue to 0.8930. Current exchange rate is 0.8905. Alternative scenario – is an attempt to regain power to sellers.

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