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23 December Forex daily review

Sergiy Zlyvko
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Monday December 23 appeared not rich on important macroeconomic statistics which can have a significant impact on the mood of the market players. The main event of the day was the release of Canada’s GDP for October, demonstrated steady growth of the economy of Maple Leaf. In November, it added 0.3%, which was by 0.2 percentage points higher than the median forecast.

In anticipation of the Christmas holidays the activity in the Forex market is low. On Monday, the dollar index dropped to day line – 80.30 and last traded at a time quotes line – 80.50. After the U.S. Federal Reserve cut QE3, data began to emerge weaker which constrain the bulls. With such statistics dollar again can chase down.

The final index of consumer sentiment of University of Michigan in the U.S. in December amounted to 82.5 (forecast was 83.4, 82.5 – preliminary value). That value put pressure on the dollar, but the fact that market activity is low, the dollar holds above 80.30.

On the occasion of holiday, the trading on the Forex is closed today at 17.00 GMT and open on Thursday at 7.00 GMT. Yesterday’s main scenario moved to Tuesday. Dollar Index in the forecast scenario reduced the amplitude of oscillation.

1.3685 mark could not resist, the EURUSD back to 1.3715 and from it the pair began a new downward movement. At 8.30 GMT the pair is trading at 1.3680 against 1.3715 high. Yesterday’s main scenario postponed to today. We think that for the bears will not be difficult to pass in the thin market from 1.3715 to 1.3625. 1.3670 line acts as support. We have forecast before closing the day, as market close at 17.00 GMT, starting on Thursday at 7.00 GMT.

GBPUSD traded during the day near 1.6350 mark. Yesterday, during the decline of the dollar, EURGBP cross strengthened than putting pressure on the pound. Today the dollar rises, the EURGBP decreases. Against this backdrop, the pound/dollar is again at a standstill and trading at 1.6350. The movement has failed. Yesterday’s forecast pushed on Tuesday and did not even make changes to it. The market is thin, so there may be no sharp fluctuations in the news. No we are in the camp of bears.
On Monday, we were counting on the fact that 0.8930 mark deters buyers.

However, the bulls have enough strength to get to the next level – 0.8955. From 0.8955 AUDUSD began to decline and by latest quotes, the pair decreased by 45 points. As a result, the fall of AUDUSD stopped and the pair is trading at 0.8910. By the main scenario we expect a slight pullback to 0.8930 followed by a decrease to 0.8885 level.

From 0.8950 mark the pair returned to 0.8920. Three times this level stopped sellers. In Asia, the dollar strengthened against many currencies and the latest quotations of course USDCHF traded at 0.8950. Yesterday’s forecast upheld. We forward the growth of the dollar to 0.8990 mark. Hourly AO indicator does not contradict to the growth of USDCHF.

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