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30 December Forex daily review

Sergiy Zlyvko
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On Monday, the U.S. dollar fell against major currencies after the publication of weak U.S. statistics. According to National Association of Realtors annual rate of pending home sales in November in the U.S. fell by 1.6% compared with November 2012. Monthly index rose by 0.2% after falling by 1.2% in October (revised from -0.6%). The data was worse than expected.

EURUSD rate has appreciated at the trading in New York to 1.3820. GBPUSD rate rebounded to 1.6530. Average growth of base pairs in the U.S. session was 50 points. After the close of the trading session in Europe, the market moved to a correctional phase. The single currency against the dollar retreated by 25 points, a pound – by 40 points.

14 hours has less before New Year. We should not needlessly stress ourselves in illiquid market. It is better to start preparing for the New Year. December 31 is shortened day. Marketplace is closed at 17.00 GMT. January 1 is day off. Beginning with the second of January, traders will return to the market. On Thursday, the market opens at 7.00 GMT.

At 14.45 GMT Chicago PMI for December will be published in the U.S. At 15.00 GMT we are waiting for the index of consumer confidence for December. There are two important report for Forex currency market and it is interesting how remaining members will react to them. Indeed, at low volumes during 1-2 hours before the market closing, the pairs can go for 80 points.

The EURUSD strayed from 1.3730 mark and after the publication of weak data from the U.S. tested 1.3820. The rebound manifested all the signs of a triangle formation. Today is the last day of this year and in the evening there are two important reports. We are practicing the script on EURUSD’s drop to 1.3760 mark.

Pound yesterday was under pressure from EURGBP cross-rate, so the bulls were only able to get to 1.6530. And for the same reason pound’s buyers faster than euro’s buyers lost all profits to the closing. At 7.20 GMT the pound is trading at around 1.6475. If the we see a triangle on EURUSD, then there is no triangle for GBPUSD so the main scenario is considering by dropping the pound to 1.6435 mark.

Correction in crosses with the Australian dollar had a strong support to customers.

Against this backdrop, the AUDUSD rose to 0.8930. When it reached 0.8930 mark, the pair usually moves higher, so just in case we added the 0.8950 level. Strong levels are 0.8950 and 0.8970. Since AO has been positive and stochastic is in the area of sales, then the main scenario we are considering the fall with the opening of trading in Europe. Up to 2 January it is better be out of the market.

Yesterday we were expecting USDCHF’s decline to 0.8910 mark and fell back to 0.8860. MA line looks down, but somehow we think that the price will bounce up and close at around 0.8890. We do not see a fall to 0.8810, but maybe after the U.S. statistics.

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