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13 January Forex daily review

Sergiy Zlyvko
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On Monday, in the absence of serious news on the foreign exchange market was the recovery of the dollar. On the day rate of the dollar index in relation to the closing price on Friday virtually unchanged. U.S. dollar significantly strengthened its position against the British pound and lost ground against Japanese yen. The EURUSD dropped to 1.3635 and currently continues to shape the price corridor with a range of 50 points.

On Tuesday, a lot of economic data are coming out in the UK. We believe that yesterday the British pound has been sold under today’s reports on fears that they will be lower than forecast estimates, as well as data on industrial production, which came out last week.

The pound fell heavily yesterday against the euro and the dollar, so on the background of EURGBP correction, the movement of the euro/dollar in a new wave of growth in the dollar could fall sharply to 1.3585. If the EURUSD on Tuesday keeps the movement in the range 1.3635-1.3685, the environment may grow up to 1.3750. The main scenario is the waiting to rise to 81.05.

We can say that the euro/dollar is fluctuating under the main scenario. What do we expect from the euro today? I’m waiting in the main scenario for a drop to 1.3580, although based on historical data from 2000 to the window of 240 bars there are pricing models for which such a situation of the EURUSD went up. Only rollbacks time was less. But if the pair will stay at current levels today until Wednesday, then tomorrow it will consider the growth to 1.3750.

Yesterday EURGBP cross moved up strongly. Against this backdrop, the pound/dollar updated the minimum. On Tuesday a lot of macro is scheduled, so you should follow the news from the UK. The single currency today can break 1.3690 mark, but we’re sticking the drop of the euro and will be in the bears camp until Wednesday.

British pound yesterday showed two strong bearish candle. We have not found an explanation for the behavior of yesterday’s pound movement and we think that the British pound has been sold before today’s reports on fears that they will be lower than forecast estimates, as well as data on industrial production, which came out last week.

The pound fell heavily against the euro and the dollar, so the background correction movement of the cross, the pound can get a support. If the dollar will continue to grow throughout the market whereas in the first half of the day the euro and the pound against the dollar are forwarded to new intraday lows. If the news about Britain will be positive, the rate of the pound/dollar may be quietly under the alternative scenario to restore all incurred losses on Tuesday.

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