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4 February Forex daily review

Sergiy Zlyvko
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On Tuesday due to the strengthening of the Australian dollar and the British pound against the U.S. dollar, the market moved in a sideways session trend. On the eve of important events now it no longer has to rely on strong and prolonged price fluctuations until Thursday.

The EURUSD during the day consolidated at 1.3515 level. GBPUSD rebounded from a low of 1.6255 on the index of business activity in the construction sector and traded at 1.6325 before closing the trading session in Chicago.

Australian dollar after the RBA meeting updated highs in the pinning zone three times. The first maximum formed on 0.8890, the second – 0.8915 and the third – 0.8940. From recent highest point the pair declined sharply to 0.8880. U.S. dollar against the Swiss franc closed in the positive zone.

According to the basic scenario for the medium we are considered the flat, but would not mind to see a stronger dollar. Final service PMI index for the EU (from 8.15 to 9.00 GMT) is important for today. Let us remind you that the final manufacturing PMI revised upwards. So that these can be better than provisional values. This means that bulls receive the support.

At 9.30 GMT in Britain service PMI will be published. Experts expect the growth in business activity from 58.8 to 59.0. Be careful, because in case of low value the pound may update yesterday’s low. With the value above 59 – the pound should continue to grow.

At 10.00 GMT a report on retail sales in the Eurozone in December will be released. Monthly and annual figures for the previous month are expected to decrease.

At 13.15 GMT important ADP employment report for January publishes. Analysts on average expected the value at the level of 180 thousand compared to 238 thousand in December. Index is weakly correlated with the NFP, but it is able to have a strong impact on dollar exchange rate.

At 15.00 GMT an index of economic conditions ISM non-manufacturing sector in January is expected. According to forecasts, the figure is going to be 53.8 after 53 in December. Mixed data is going to be published in Britain, Europe and the United States – we should be ready to swing.

The EURUSD traded at 1.3540 mark and above 1.3505 line And when the price is above 1.3505 it is likely to go up for the pair. Something tells us that the euro will go up due to the crosses. Rising above 1.3565 is not considered. It is desirable that day closed around 1.3505 mark. In the first half of the day we are following the news.

GBPUSD rebounded from a low of 1.6255 to 1.6330. The price is traded near 1.6315 level. This means the pair is ready to fall, but we think traders will not sell a pound before 9.30 GMT. At this time the service PMI index in the UK will be published. With average above 59 the pound should strengthen. If the value is below 59 – it will drop. The main scenario is considering the growth to 1.6370.

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